The Tunisia Effect

Maps of Egypt, Tunisia and Ukraine to right

What do these three countries--Tunisia, Egypt and Ukraine--so different from one another, with such different histories and cultures, have in common?

In all three countries, long-simmering discontent with political intransigence, corruption, persistent unemployment and poverty is erupting into public protest. Other nations with similar long-standing problems are also lining up, on the verge of unrest. Yemen's an example

The human need for self-determination cannot be held down forever. It will break out in time, a tiny spark enough to cause a giant conflagration on top of years of mounting discontent and rage. It's like a volcano that smoulders for years and then finally erupts.

The anti-government protests now rocking Cairo, Egypt, Suez and other cities, echo the protest phenomenon in Tunisia, where the people came together to overthow an oppressive totalitarian regime. The people of Egypt, like the Tunisians, are fed up with the one-man rule that has dominated their country with an iron fist for over 30 years. They are fed up with corruption, lack of basic freedoms, police brutality, and the daily struggle for survival.

Egypt has 80 million people, almost half of whom live below the poverty level. They are finding their voice. They are speaking out. And they are making no bones about it: they are inspired and emboldened by the example of Tunisia.

I wasn’t surprised, because when I was in Egypt at year-end I regularly heard quiet complaints, more in the form of jokes or sarcasm or a feigned resignation, about their “president for life” and his self-promoting monuments throughout the capital city and in other cities along the Nile. The criticsm was muted but persistent. It seemed only a matter of time that people’s discontent would find an outlet. The 10,000 protesters in Tahnir Square, waving Egyptian and Tunisian flags, called for the president's outster and for the formation of a new government.

An AP article by Maggie Michael (1/25/2011) and journalists from Egypt quoted a 24-year-old hotel worker who lives on a salary of $50 a month as saying: “This is the first time I am protesting, but we have been a cowardly nation. We have to finally say no.” Another protestor proclaimed, “We want to see change, just like in Tunisia. ”

"Just like in Tunisia." Something similar I think is happening in Ukraine. Thousands of protesters, for example, turned out in Kyiv's Independence Square to call for changes in the tax codes, which they say favor the rich and hurt small businesses and working people. I heard supporters in Starobelsk cheering them on. They also called for new elections and a new national government.

Protests are erupting in towns and villages, too, in outraged response to local governments adopting Comprehensive City Plans without public input, as called for by law. In Lugansk, protestors urged more transparent, accessible and responsive city governments. This in far-eastern Ukraine, not in the west where it might be expected. The Tunisia Effect.

Revolts against oppression have taken place around the world throughout time. They are often slow in coming. They often reflect decades of unhappiness, simmering rage, pent-up disgust with things as they are.

Today, the communications revolution may be speeding things up. Like in Tunisia, the calls for rallies in Egypt went out on Facebook and Twitter, with 90,000 expressing support. Same thing is happening in Ukraine, where reformers are taking to the internet and social networks to keep people informed and to call for support.

Vovo and Yulia, of the NGO East Lugansk Center for Civil Initiatives, whom I've written about in my blogs about change from the bottom up, are out there leading the actions for honesty and open government. I'm no seer, but I've long sensed the yearning for change in Ukraine, and I've long noted signs of it at the grassroots level.

This is where human agency--the people's will, the people's voice--comes powerfully into play. It is human nature, I think, to struggle against oppression. It is human nature to fight for freedom and self-determination. This doesn’t mean all governments must be alike, or like the US government or any other government. There are many models of political governance. It simply means people want a say in how they are governed. They want opportunity. They want transparency and honesty. They want the chance to shape their own destinies.

The means to the end may vary, but the human need for freedom and autonomy will win out in the long run. Simmering outrage eventually becomes outright protest. If only dictators understood this basic human need they might not dig in their heels and use violence to stay in power. They might bend like willow trees in the face of the inevitable gusts of change that blow across the paths of time.

The human need for freedom, economic opportunity, justice, and self-determination will triumph. It's just a matter of time. The Tunisia effect.